EU Referendum: Why I voted to remain

Trying to make sense of the referendum

 Note: I wrote this a couple of days before the referendum

Sovereignty: in all important respects (e.g. War) the UK is a sovereign state. The status of EU legislation has been established by Parliament, and cd be changed.  The majority of UK law is not simply a direct translation of EU legislation, and much of it appears to be concerned with regulations.

Red tape: the EU itself is concerned with reducing the amount of centrally created legislation and regulation, and moves are in hand (which will be greatly supported by the UK) to both reduce the amount of such legislation and to give more autonomy to national parliaments.

Democratic deficit: the EU law making process is not as undemocratic as alleged (key decisions and legislation are passed by the Council of Ministers and by the Parliament), but it could be more so.

EU Federation: the UK is already absolved from becoming involved, and there is some drawing back from this among EU members. Even if a confederation of Eurozone members takes place, the U.K. Is outside the Eurozone and will not be involved                                                                                                                      

EU Immobility: the difficulty of fixing such matters as the monthly removal to Strasbourg, though widely regarded as wasteful and inefficient, cannot easily be changed except by agreement of all member nations, a change to the treaty, and national referenda. Unless such impediments in governance can be changed, other reforms will likewise be stymied. This is a real cause of concern if much needed reforms to the EU are to be successful, but in itself is not a reason for withdrawal.

Trade treaties: these are less concerned with tariffs than with regulations and the EU provides the  Holy Grail as far as these are concerned.  Establishing trade treaties post Brexit wd involve both the EU and those countries with which the UK wished to trade.  These negotiations wd likely be tortuous. Also it is doubtful that the UK has the expertise to conduct such negotiations.  Furthermore, it is unlikely that any countries will enter into a treaty until the UK's post Brexit trade relations with the EU are clarified -- and this could take years. So, there is likely to be a trade treaty limbo which could be damaging to the UK economy. In any case, the U.K. will be negotiating from a position of weakness, and China and India, for instance,  are unlikely to be offering advantageous conditions to the UK.

Economy: everyone seems to agree that there will be a post Brexit dip.  Retrieving the income foregone will involve stimulating extra growth from a position of  weakness.   Furthermore, short term effects can have long term consequences, all of which are difficult to predict, adding to medium to long term uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the presence and position of international companies in the UK post Brexit are also uncertain, since their presence is largely determined by entry to the large European market. (80% of UK car production is exported).  Further complicating the situation are the supply chains which involve EU sources of components for UK made products. In addition, the status of the U.K. as a financial services centre will almost certainly be affected, particularly as Paris and Frankfurt are keen to benefit.

Immigration: this issue has been thoroughly contaminated by the Referendum.  Successive governments have failed to address it effectively.  Furthermore, domestic policies have exacerbated the situation, e.g. Inadequate ESL support, withdrawal of funds to local governments in areas receiving large numbers of immigrants, framing immigration and immigrants as a problem.  Future governments must do better.


It is clear that controlling immigration post Brexit will not be easy, and it is likely to be even more difficult given what wd probably be a porous border between Ireland and the U.K. Instead of receiving legal immigrants, the U.K. would be likely to suffer from increasing numbers of illegals who wouldn't be tax payers.

Employment: Successive governments have failed to predict manpower requirements, and provide effective education and training (e.g. Decent apprenticeships) to fill jobs, many of which are filled by immigrants.

The U.K.is lightly regulated as far as employment is concerned, and this appears to leave gaps for exploitation, such as the recruitment within the EU of workers to be employed at below the UK living wage.  This is a domestic issue which requires a domestic solution.

Identity politics: this has been exploited by UKIP in particular, and, like immigration, has not really been adequately addressed.  There is an irony in this in that both the French and Spanish are taking measures against the contamination of their languages by English, and there are EU requirements regarding TV and films regarding 'European' content and origin. Unfortunately, in the UK identity politics seem to be aligned to a peak Blighty view of British culture and way of life, which is inimical to an internationalist orientation.

Domestic politics post Brexit:  the austerity agenda will be given a boost (as already indicated by Osborne's emergency budget) and the review of UK laws, even though carried out by the civil service, will basically be the responsibility of the government.  If this government is more right wing than centrist, the opportunity will doubtless be taken to strip out as much EU inspired legislation concerning environment, employment, human rights. In any case, this process will be greatly complicated by the integration of EU and UK law, and UK case law derived from this.

Further starving public services of funds in the name of austerity will doubtless hasten privatisation in the name of efficiency and cost saving.

Though only mentioned in passing by most commentators, the effects on Brexit on the Northern Ireland peace process could be damaging. As to Scotland....

International status of UK: it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that it will be diminished rather than enhanced by withdrawal from the EU.  Peak Blighty has no resonance with the world outside the UK except as content of TV drama.

Overall, I see no significant benefits in withdrawal from the EU, and many problems.  I am minded to vote REMAIN.